Saturday, December 31, 2016

Week 17


The waters are just too shark infested this week. The last week of the season is not the time to make money as far as I’m concerned! No best bets this time. Next week I’ll have complete analysis, recommendations and write-ups for all the playoff games. Check back this Friday!
 

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Recap

 
My record last week is why I like to scale back best bets late in the year. Typically I have few best bets early in the season as well as late. I wait to see how things are going early obviously and later in the season, the last 2 weeks, I pull them back because weather becomes more of a factor, some teams just don’t show up because they’re in the playoffs or because they’re out of the playoffs. Over the last 3 decades I’ve always tried to make my money between weeks 3 and 15. A good case in point is last week. I got shot down to the tune of 1-6. I had hoped my ranking system would be able to navigate the waters of the late season NFL games. The problem is plain to see in that sentence. Correct handicapping and gambling should never involve “hoping” for a result. I did in fact go where the facts led me, but I should have used my decades of experience to step in and shut it down when so many picks were generated. On the bright side I was so far ahead that my record could take the hit and still be respectable.
My year to date record is now 26-19, 57.8% +5.1 units. A terrible way to bring the year to a close, losing over half my profits like that. I’ll post my thoughts on the week 17’s games on Friday.

Thursday, December 22, 2016

 

Week 16 Best Bets!



I have a bit of a dilemma this week as my Ranking System that I’ve been developing and using for the past 3 years with great success has given me 7 best bets for week 16.  My record for the season is sitting at 25-13  65.8%, 10.7 units ahead. So on one hand my system has had 3 excellent years and is responsible for getting me where I am this season. On the other hand I hate putting it all on the line so late in the season with 7 best bets.

The bottom line is I have to trust the system and go for it. It’s hitting at such a high rate over several years it would be foolish to turn my back on it now.

Good luck to us all and have a Merry Christmas! I hope we wake up to a little something extra in our stockings this Christmas morning!

 PROGnosis: Atlanta -2.5

PROGnosis: Tampa Bay +3

PROGnosis: Tennessee -5

PROGnosis: San Diego -5.5

PROGnosis: Indianapolis +3.5

PROGnosis: Pittsburgh -5.5

PROGnosis: Detroit +7
 
 

 

Week 16 Best Bets will be up Friday!


No best bets on Thursdays nights game, but it looks like I'll be having a lot of plays this weekend. Check back on Friday.

Saturday, December 17, 2016

No Best Beets for Week 15


I just don’t see a game with the right value this week and I’m not going to force anything. So no picks this week. I’ll be back next week looking for the right play at the right time.
 

Friday, December 9, 2016


Three Best Bets for Week 14!


PROGnosis: San Diego +1.5

PROGnosis: Minnesota/Jacksonville under 39

PROGnosis: Atlanta -6
 

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Best Bets Will be Posted Friday Night!


I don't have any best bets for Thursday nights game. I'm looking for a close game, so take the Raiders plus 3 if you really want to have a play on the game. Let's enjoy a meaningful Thursday night game for a change!

Tuesday, December 6, 2016


The Prognosticator Wins Again!


I went 2-0 in week 13, winning both my picks easily. Detroit was getting 6 points and not only won the game 28-13, but they were leading the whole way. The Colts scored early and often, winning going away  41-10.
My year to date record now stands at 24-11, 68.6%, 11.9 units ahead for the season.

Out of the 9 weeks I’ve been releasing my picks I’ve had 7 winning weeks, two losing weeks, with one of those weeks being a tying week. That week saw me go 2-2, so it was a losing week as I lost .2 units on the vig.
 

Friday, December 2, 2016


Week 13 Best Bets!


Two best bets this week. Good luck!

 
PROGnosis: Detroit +6

PROGnosis: Indianapolis -2
 
 

Tuesday, November 29, 2016


Another Winning Week!


I had what I call a trifecta in week 12. It’s not a good thing. I had the Saints game under 45.5 as a best bet. The game went over by halftime, with the score being 28-21 at the half. Second, the Saints took the game over by themselves, scoring 49. And lastly it was the highest scoring game of the weekend at 70 points.

Despite a swing a complete miss on that game I had another winning week, going 2-1. That makes my record 22-11 year to date, 66.7%, 9.9 units ahead for the season.

I don’t have a best bet for the Thursday night game so check back Friday night for my week 13 best bets!
 

Friday, November 25, 2016



Week 12 Best Bets!


I’m looking at 3-0 this week! I love these picks. Let’s rock!

PROGnosis: Tennessee -5.5

PROGnosis: Arizona/Atlanta over 50.5

PROGnosis: Los Angeles/New Orleans under 45.5

 

My best bets are 20-10 for the season, 66.7% and 9 units ahead for the year.  

Wednesday, November 23, 2016


 

Week 11 Recap


I went 2-2 ATS (Against the spread) with best bets in week 11. It was a tough week for me as I really felt I had a good handle on the games but it just didn’t translate into wins for us.

The favorites had a big week going 9-4 ATS, but the dogs are still way ahead on the season sitting at 84-69 ATS. Home teams haven’t had a winning week in 3 weeks ATS, so don’t be surprised to see them have a big week this Thanksgiving weekend.

Have a happy Thanksgiving and check back Friday for this weekend’s best bets!
 

Saturday, November 19, 2016

Week 11 Best Bets!


Sorry I couldn't get these on last night. I've got 3 ready to go for tomorrow!

PROGnosis: Arizona +2

PROGnosis: Baltimore/Dallas over 45

PROGnosis: New England -12

Wednesday, November 16, 2016


Week 10 Recap And Best Bet


My first losing week saw me hit a sour note, going 2-5, bringing my year to date record to 18-8, 69.2%, +9.2 units.

I have a best bet on the Thursday night game. Check back later in the week for any more best bets. I’ll have them up by Friday night.

 PROGnosis: New Orleans +3.5

 

Saturday, November 12, 2016


 

Week 10 Best Bets


I have 5 best bets for Sunday’s games below, but first an apology for Thursday night’s game. I made a mistake. I really liked both Cleveland and the over. Then I had the bright idea to release both as best bets. I don’t like to have 2 bets on 1 game because I have to call the game perfectly to win. But in this case with a high spread of 10 and a reasonably low total of 45, all Cleveland had to do was get to at least 17 points to ensure that we couldn’t lose both bets, while giving us an excellent chance at winning both. They’ve been averaging more than 17 a game so far this year. I calculated it was more likely that we would win both bets than lose both bets, with the most likely result being one bet wining and one bet losing.
I don’t hate the play or the reasoning. My mistake was in making them best bets. I believe with games in that situation, high spread rather low total, this type of play shows a profit over time. However, the best bets should be used for plays that are going to win this week, not a numbers game that are going to win over the long haul. I’m sorry for that and I won’t do it again. What I should say is, if I do it again, it will be as a suggestion, not as a best bet.

Now on to the rest of the best!

PROGnosis: Kansas City +3

PROGnosis: Minnesota/Washington under 41.5

PROGnosis: Atlanta -1.5

PROGnosis: San Diego -4

PROGnosis: Seattle +7.5

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Week 10 Thursday Night  Special!


I've got 2 best bets for the Thursday night game! Be sure and get in on the action! Also I have my eye on a few more games, so check back later in the week.

PROGnosis: Cleveland +10

PROGnosis: Cleveland/Baltimore over 45

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

The Prog Does it Again!


He won for the fifth straight week, going 2-1. That brings his year to date record to 16-3. That’s 84.2% and 12.7 units won!

Home favorites are 39-47 ATS

Home dogs are 24-17 ATS

Home teams are 63-64 ATS

Favorites are 56-71 ATS

There have been 60 games that gone under the total and 73 games that have gone over.

Check back Wednesday for The Prognosticator’s Best Bets!
 
 

Wednesday, November 2, 2016


 
 

Week 9 Best Bet

PROGnosis: N.Y. Jets +3.5
PROGnosis: New Orleans -3.5
PROGnosis: Tennessee/San Diego over 47
 
 
 
 

Week 8 Recap


The Prognosticator continues his great run!  He went a perfect 3-0 in week 8 NFL action against the spread, bringing his year to date total to 14-2 ATS! That’s 87.5% and 11.8 units won!

The Prog has won every week so far! Go with the hot hand. Go with the Prog!
 

Wednesday, October 26, 2016


Week 8 Best Bets


 The Prognosticator is back with some scary good Halloween picks!

ProgsPicks:

New Orleans +3

New England -6.5

Minnesota/Chicago under 41
 

Sunday, October 23, 2016


Week 7 Recap!


The Prognosticator does it again! He won big in week 7 going 5-1 with his Best Bets! That makes his Best Bet record against the spread to 11-2 year to date. That’s 84.6% and 8.8 units won. A fantastic start to the Prog’s season!  
 

Wednesday, October 19, 2016


Week 7 Best Bets


I have 6 Best Bets ready to win! Be sure and check back later in case I have any late releases for the weekend.

ProgsPicks:

Green Bay -7.5 Note: Green Bay is the Thursday night game!

Washington +1.5

Oakland +1

Miami +3

New Orleans +6.5

San Diego +6.5

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

 

 

Week 6 Recap

The Prognosticator does it again, winning for the second week in a row! He won his only Best Bet of the week bringing his season record to 6-1, a 85.7% clip for 4.9 units won!
The underdogs had another big week going 9-4. Making them 54-35 ATS for the season. Amazing.
 

Wednesday, October 12, 2016



Week 6 Best Bet


ProgsPicks: Chicago/Jacksonville under 47

Lock this too high number in now. Bad weather can only help the under! I’m still looking at more games, so be sure to check back in later this week in case I decide to pull the trigger!

 

Week 5 Update


The Prognosticator went 5-1 on his Best Bets in week 5 action! Don’t call your bookie until you talk to The Prog first!
This season has gone to the dogs! The dogs had another winning weeks going 8-6, which brings their season total to 45-31 ATS. The favorites have had just one winning week so far, going 8-7 that week. The totals last week broke even at 7 unders and 7 overs. For the season we’ve seen 35 unders and 41 overs.

 

Friday, October 7, 2016

One more Best Bet for Week 5!


In the Oakland/San Diego game the total is high at 51, but these two teams have consistently shown this season that they can put up the numbers to go over.

ProgsPicks: Over 51

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Week 5 Best Bets!


Finally the time has come to get going on the 2016 season! I’ve got five games ready to go this week. It’s a long season so settle in and let the winning begin!

Tennessee at Miami

Line: Miami-3.5

ProgsPicks: Tennessee+3.5

NY Jets at Pittsburgh

Line: Pittsburgh-7

ProgsPicks: NY Jets +7

San Diego at Oakland

Line: Oakland -3.5

ProgsPicks: San Diego +3.5

Cincinnati at Dallas

Line: Cincinnati -1

ProgsPicks: Dallas +1

Tampa Bay at Carolina

Line: Carolina -7

ProgsPicks: Tampa Bay +7
 
Be sure to check back as the week goes on. I'm looking at a few totals and want to be sure that the weather doesn't get in the way. Good luck to us all this week!
The Prognosticator
 

Friday, September 30, 2016


Week 3 Recap


Favorites lost again in week 3 action, which means they haven’t had a winning week yet this season. They went 5-10 ATS last week, bringing their season record to 17-30 ATS. I’ve never seen the favorites start out a season so slowly. Home dogs continue to shine, going 3-1 ATS, 10-3 ATS for the season. Seven games went under the totals and 9 games went over.

I’m not releasing this as a Best Bet, but the total in the Giants/Vikings game Monday night of 43 looks too high to me. Two of the best defenses in the NFL at preventing scoring and 2 offenses that have struggled to move the ball. The Giants have gone over that total once so far this year while the Vikings have never gone over it. This game has under written all over it. No pun intended. The only reason I'm not releasing this as a Best Bet is because I'm not officially starting until week 5, but that doesn't mean you can't pick up a few dollars on it does it?
 

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Week 2 Recap


Favorites had another tough week going 7-9 ATS (Against the spread), now just 12-20 ATS for the season. Home dogs went 3-0 ATS in week 2 action, and are now 7-2 ATS for the season. 7 games went under the totals and 9 went over.



Tuesday, September 13, 2016


Week 1 Recap


Home teams went 7-9 against the spread, (ATS), and favorites went 5-11 ATS in week 1 action. Breaking in down further, home favorites went 3-7 ATS, home dogs went 4-2 ATS. 7 games went under the total, 8 games went over, with one game being a push.
This is a bounce back spot for favorites next week. Look for favorites to have a strong week in week 2 action.  
 
 

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

 

I'm Ready for Football to Start!


I won’t be releasing any picks until week 5 of NFL action this season. This is the way I normally do it. Some people don’t like this as they like to be in action every week, but I’m here for one reason, and one reason only. That’s to help you win money. While I know lots of players like to have money in action every week and have bets down on the Thursday night game, the Sunday night game and of course the biggest game of the week, Monday Night Football, those aren’t necessarily the best betting opportunities. Some weeks I might recommend 1 game, some weeks 3 games, some weeks 5 games and yes, some weeks no games. When I find a game with an advantage, I make it a play. I won’t force a bet because it’s Monday night and it’s fun to bet on Monday night. That just isn’t the way to make a profit. I sit out the first 4 weeks to see how the season is playing out. This has worked out very well for me in the past and I see no reason to change now.

I will be reviewing every week’s action with stats you’ll need if you decide to take the plunge on your own. It never hurts to know how the season going, so check back several times a week!  
 
 

 

I'm Ready for Football to Start!


I won’t be releasing any picks until week 5 of NFL action this season. This is the way I normally do it. Some people don’t like this as they like to be in action every week, but I’m here for one reason, and one reason only. That’s to help you win money. While I know lots of players like to have money in action every week and have bets down on the Thursday night game, the Sunday night game and of course the biggest game of the week, Monday Night Football, those aren’t necessarily the best betting opportunities. Some weeks I might recommend 1 game, some weeks 3 games, some weeks 5 games and yes, some weeks no games. When I find a game with an advantage, I make it a play. I won’t force a bet because it’s Monday night and it’s fun to bet on Monday night. That just isn’t the way to make a profit. I sit out the first 5 weeks to see how the season is playing out. This has worked out very well for me in the past and I see no reason to change now.

I will be reviewing every week’s action with stats you’ll need if you decide to take the plunge on your own. It never hurts to know how the season going, so check back several times a week!  
 
 

Monday, September 5, 2016

Win Percentage


What percentage of bets should a handicapper expect to win, against the spread (ATS), during an NFL season? When I first started out 20 years ago on ProgsPicks.com I asked friends and family that question. The answers I got most typically were around 70-75%. Even to this day when I ask people that’s about the response I get. That’s way too high of course. In fact 60% is too high, which surprises most people. 60% is very hard to achieve on a regular basis. In all my years of handicapping, I’ve hit over 60% ATS twice. The truth is, if a handicapper is winning at a rate of 60% ATS, he’s probably not winning enough. That may sound confusing, but I should be able to clear it up by the end of this article.

There are two ways to judge how someone is doing with their picks. The first is win percentage and the second is how many units they’re ahead. Units are used as a measure and not money because people have different bet sizes and it’s difficult to compare directly with different amounts of money in play. When calculating units won, add 1 for every pick won and subtract 1.1 for every losing pick.

Let’s look at two gamblers and see how they did. The first person goes 4-2 has a fantastic win percentage of 66.7%. Another person goes 7-4, which is a 63.6% winning rate. A very good winning percentage, but not as good as the first one.  Of course the fact the second person won almost 50% more units gets lost in the shuffle.  4-2 wins 1.8 units versus 7-4 which wins 2.6 units.

With that in mind, which of the two gamblers above did better? It depends on how you look at it. The first had a higher win rate. The second won more units. It may not be that the first person was better at picking winners, it might be that the second person bet on every game he thought he could win. If the goal is to make money, and that’s my goal, then it’s clear to see the second gambler did better.

The breakeven point on betting in the NFL is 52.38% (You have to win 11 games for every 10 you lose. 11 divided by 21 equals 52.38 %.) If you’re presented with two games to bet on, one that wins at a rate of 60% and another that wins at a rate of 55%, how should you bet? If you’re trying to play it safe and minimize your risks, you’d go with the 60% bet. However, the best play to win money is to bet on both games. While we’d all like to have a 60% chance of winning all our bets, those situations don’t come around all the time. To really make money in NFL betting you need to bet every game you have an advantage on. Any game, above say 54%, makes you money in the long run and if winning money is the goal, you should be taking advantage of every winning situation you can find.

If someone told you that they won $10,000 on betting football, are they a great handicapper? You'd have to ask a few questions. Like, how did they do it? If it turns out that this guy took all the money he had in the world and bet it on one game and won, I'd congratulate him. And then I'd walk away thinking this guy's an idiot.  But note, he won $10,000 and hit 100% of his bets! Does that make him a knowledgeable and great handicapper? Not in the least. It makes him lucky, very lucky, in the short run. Short run as in 1 bet.

 So what’s the answer to what should a handicappers win rate be? It depends on the amount of bets. If he is making just one bet he has to hit 100% to make money. If he’s making 200 bets, 55% makes him a nice profit. As a general rule, the more bets you make the lower your win rate, but even a small winning rate can win given enough bets. A reasonable win rate to shoot for is 57.5%. Hitting 60% can be done, but if your win rate is that high you’re probably leaving too much money on the table by not betting all the profitable games that win at a lower rate. That costs you money to inflate your win rate. It can be a tricky balance.

If someone tells you they can hit 70% ATS winners, run from that person as fast as possible! I’m not saying it’s impossible to do it for a season, however unlikely that is, but there’s no way to do it long term or to guarantee to be able to do it for the upcoming season.  


Win Percentage


What percentage of bets should a handicapper expect to win during an NFL season? When I first started out 20 years ago on ProgsPicks.com I asked friends and family that question. The answers I got most typically were around 70-75%. Even to this day when I ask people that’s about the response I get. That’s way too high of course. In fact 60% is too high, which surprises most people. 60% is very hard to achieve on a regular basis. In all my years of handicapping, I’ve hit over 60% twice. The truth is, if a handicapper is winning at a rate of 60%, he’s probably not winning enough. That may sound confusing, but I should be able to clear it up by the end of this article.

There are two ways to judge how someone is doing with their picks. The first is win percentage and the second is how many units they’re ahead. Units are used as a measure and not money because people have different bet sizes and it’s difficult to compare directly with different amounts of money in play. When calculating units won, add 1 for every pick won and subtract 1.1 for every losing pick.

Let’s look at two gamblers and see how they did. The first person goes 4-2 has a fantastic win percentage of 66.7%. Another person goes 7-4, which is a 63.6% winning rate. A very good winning percentage, but not as good as the first one.  Of course the fact the second person won almost 50% more units gets lost in the shuffle.  4-2 wins 1.8 units versus 7-4 which wins 2.6 units.

With that in mind, which of the two gamblers above did better? It depends on how you look at it. The first had a higher win rate. The second won more units. It may not be that the first person was better at picking winners, it might be that the second person bet on every game he thought he could win. If the goal is to make money, and that’s my goal, then it’s clear to see the second gambler did better.

The breakeven point on betting in the NFL is 52.38% (You have to win 11 games for every 10 you lose. 11 divided by 21 equals 52.38 %.) If you’re presented with two games to bet on, one that wins at a rate of 60% and another that wins at a rate of 55%, how should you bet? If you’re trying to play it safe and minimize your risks, you’d go with the 60% bet. However, the best play to win money is to bet on both games. While we’d all like to have a 60% chance of winning all our bets, those situations don’t come around all the time. To really make money in NFL betting you need to bet every game you have an advantage on. Any game, above say 54%, makes you money in the long run and if winning money is the goal, you should be taking advantage of every winning situation you can find.

If someone told you that they won $10,000 on betting football, are they a great handicapper? You'd have to ask a few questions. Like, how did they do it? If it turns out that this guy took all the money he had in the world and bet it on one game and won, I'd congratulate him. And then I'd walk away thinking this guy's an idiot.  But note, he won $10,000 and hit 100% of his bets! Does that make him a knowledgeable and great handicapper? Not in the least. It makes him lucky, very lucky, in the short run. Short run as in 1 bet.

 So what’s the answer to what should a handicappers win rate be? It depends on the amount of bets. If he is making just one bet he has to hit 100% to make money. If he’s making 200 bets, 55% makes him a nice profit. As a general rule, the more bets you make the lower your win rate, but even a small winning rate can win given enough bets. A reasonable win rate to shoot for is 57.5%. Hitting 60% can be done, but if your win rate is that high you’re probably leaving too much money on the table by not betting all the profitable games that win at a lower rate. That costs you money to inflate your win rate. It can be a tricky balance.

If someone tells you they can hit 70% winners, run from that person as fast as possible! I’m not saying it’s impossible to do it for a season, however unlikely that is, but there’s no way to do it long term or to guarantee to be able to do it for the upcoming season.  


Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Bet Sizing

 
 
When it comes to betting on football games there are many systems out there. The most popular systems seem to follow the same basic idea. It goes along the idea of raising your bets when you’re winning and lowering them when you’re losing. That way you take full advantage of winning steaks and don’t get hurt on losing steaks. The reasoning behind this seems logical enough. That certainly sounds like good advice, but is it? It’s very bad advice actually. Before we get into the nuts and bolts of it, I have a simple question. How in the world does someone know they’re in the middle of a winning streak? And if they know that they’re in the middle of a steak, why wouldn’t they bet everything they have on the next game? After all, they would know they’re going to win the next game, because being in the middle of a winning streak means just that. The advice is silly on its face. As it turns out, that piece of advice has hurt far more gamblers than it’s helped. Raising and lowering your bet sizes actually makes it harder for you to win. Here’s an example. Take any series of 10 bets with 5 wins and 5 losses. If you bet the same amount on every game, you’re going to break even, no surprise there. Now let’s look at a sequence of bets, raising and lowering after a win or loss. It doesn’t matter what the order is for these 5 wins and 5 losses. I’ll do two below. The one on the left is 5 wins followed by 5 losses. On the right, 5 losses followed by 5 winning bets. The bet size will be 10% of the total bankroll after the last bet. The bankroll stars out at $1000.

 

Bet size
Bankroll
Bet size
Bankroll
1000
1000
win
100
1100
loss
100
900
win
110
1210
loss
90
810
win
121
1331
loss
81
729
win
133
1464
loss
73
656
win
146
1610
loss
66
590
loss
161
1449
win
59
649
loss
145
1304
win
65
714
loss
130
1174
win
71
785
loss
117
1057
win
79
864
loss
106
951
win
86
950

The first thing we notice is that both sequences end up losing money. Remember, when you bet the same amount on each game you start with $1000 and after 5 wins and 5 losses you still have $1000. When you change bet sizes, you end up with about $950. You’ve lost about $50 in both examples, picking the same games at the same win rate, 50%. The wins and losses can be in any order. As long as there are 5 wins and 5 losses the results will be the same, minus about $50. The second thing to notice is that when you juggle the bet sizes, you have to win at a higher percentage rate to make money. Where 50% was break even, when varying bet sizes it’s a higher number.

Notice that we didn’t account for the vig in these examples. There’s no doubt about it, raising and lowering your bet sizes makes it harder for you win money.

This doesn’t mean to never raise your bet or lower it. If you use a bankroll, my advice is to only change your bet size at the beginning of the season and keep it at that level for the whole season.  If you don’t use a bankroll, and you should, you should never change your bet size during a season.

Most gamblers don’t understand this concept and consequently make it harder on themselves to win. Don’t fall into this trap!

Sunday, August 28, 2016


Who Pays the Vig?


 

Vig is short for vigorish, which is the amount of money that the bookmaker takes to handle wagering. It’s also called the juice. It’s how bookmarkers makes their money.

Who pays the vig when betting on football?  Even people who’ve bet football for decades get this completely wrong.

Let’s say two gamblers bet on a football game, they bet $11 to win $10, each of them taking opposing teams. One of them wins his bet and he wins $10. The other loses his bet, and he loses $11. Who pays the vig, the winner of the bet or the loser? The answer almost every person will give is that the loser pays the vig by virtue of the extra dollar he pays.  However, this is incorrect. The winner pays the vig. The winner always pays the vig in games of chance, whether it be in the casinos, the lottery or in sports betting. The reason for this is that the loser of the bet always loses what he had at risk, no more, no less. The winner always receives LESS than the correct payout, the correct payout here being $11 on a 50/50 proposition. The difference in what the winner should have been paid and what he received is what the bookmaker kept, or the vig. The only exception to this is when the lottery doesn’t have winner for so long that eventually someone wins one of those huge jackpots and he indeed gets more than the correct payout.  

Let me give a simple example. If two friends decide to bet $11 on a football game, one wins $11 and the other loses $11. There’s no vig in play here. Let’s say the same two friends decide to bet another game, but this time with a bookie. Once again they both bet $11. When the game is over, one of them losses $11, just like in the first case. However the winner wins only $10, as the bookie keeps a dollar as his fee, which is the vig.  In both cases, the loser loses the same amount. It doesn’t matter to him if a bookie was involved or not. He loses what he bet. Does it matter to the winner if a bookie was involved? Absolutely! He wins $1 less when the bookie was used.

I had a friend tell me once that I had it all wrong, that I was playing with the numbers somehow. He tried turning things around. His reasoning went like this: If two friends decide to bet $10 on a football game, one wins $10 and the other loses $10. There’s no vig in play here. Let’s say the same two friends decide to bet another game, but this time with a bookie. When the game is over, the winner receives $10, but the loser loses $1 extra for a total of $11. In both cases, the winner wins the same amount. It doesn’t matter to him if a bookie was involved or not. Does it matter to the loser if a bookie was involved? Absolutely! He loses $1 more when the bookie was used.

Can you spot the flaw in that reasoning?

What my friend forgot is that while the winner wins the same amount, he was risking $1 more with the bookie. He was still risking $11 to win $10. He was still shorted $1 in the payoff, which is the vig. 

Remember, the loser ALWAYS loses everything he risks no matter the game, no matter if a bookie or a casino is involved or not. The vig is always deducted from the winner and never added to the loser. The winner wins less than the correct payout. The difference between what the winner receives and what he should have been paid is the vig. 

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

NFL 2016 is almost here!


Let me introduce myself. I’m the Prognosticator, AKA The Prog.  I've been handicapping the NFL for over 40 years. Since 1996 I've had the Progspicks.com website. I've done very well throughout the years picking the winners of the NFL games, and showing people the way to win. Five years ago I lost my passion for writing and felt I wasn’t putting my best effort into my picks so I stopped selling picks on my site and gave up handicapping for a couple of years. Now I find I have the passion back and I’m working harder than I’ve ever have. I’m raring to go and more than ready for the start of the 2016 season! I’ll be giving away all my picks thing season here in my blog. All my Best Bets, free for the taking! I’ll have all picks up by Wednesday evening at the latest.

There’s 15 days until the season kicks off. During that time I’ll be posting some articles about the gambling side of football. Bet sizing, bankrolls, money management and other thoughts. Be sure to check them out!