Week 16

Lock of the year!!



Minnesota at Cincinnati  
Line:Cincinnati -8
Total: 47.5

This total is way to low. The Vikings have scored at least 20 in their last 8 games, 4 on the road and 4 at home. During that stretch they've also scored in the 30s twice and the 40s once. Their defense has given up at least 20 in every game this season. They've averaged given up 30.4 points a game this season. Over their last 4 games the average score has been 31-26.

The Bengals have scored at least 41 in each of it's last 3 home games. Over their last 4 games the average score has been 30-22.

These teams have both been scoring, and allowing a ton of points the whole season. Why should it stop now?

PROGnosis: Over 47.5

Week 15

Two Best Bets this week.

Philadelphia at Minnesota
Line: Philadelphia -6
Total: 53

PROGnosis: Philadelphia -6

Kansas City at Oakland
Line: Kansas City -6
Total: 43.5

PROGnosis: Kansas City -6

Week 13

I took the Tampa Bay/Carolina game over 41.5 based on the fact that this season games set at 41.5 have gone under 1 time and over 7 times. Further, games with a line of 41 have gone under 4 times and over 11 times. I figured why fight it? I'll take the over.

Week 11 Trends

My system predicts a solid over week on totals, so lean that way. The first game came in over the total so that's a good start.

Still only one game all season  has had a total of 38.5 or less. Scoring is way up this season.

 Home dogs have lost only one week so far.

 Home favorites have lost 2 weeks in a row.

 Dogs have won 2 weeks in a row.

 Home teams have lost 2 weeks in a row.

Week 10

I'm going with San Francisco/Carolina over 43.5 this week as a Best Bet.

My survivor pick this week is Tennessee. 

Week 10

Washington at Minnesota
Line: Washington -2.5
Total: 49.5

 Fun trivia!

 

What do Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Minnesota have in common?

 They haven't won a game on American soil this season. Minnesota's one win came against Pittsburgh in London.

 Two quarterbacks, Peyton Manning and Nick Foles  have more touchdown passes in a single game this year than all of the Minnesota quarterbacks have had all season.

 Two Best Bets here.

 PROGnosis: Washington -2.5, OVER 49.5

 

 

Week 9

Four Best Bets this Sunday!


Minnesota at Dallas
Line: Dallas -9.5
Total: 49.5

Tony Romo wil have a huge day agains the very weak Viking defense. They can;t cover and can;t apply pressure to the quarterback.

Two Best Bets here.

PROGnosis: Dallas -9.5, OVER 49.5



Philadelphia at Oakland
Line: Oakland -2.5
Total: 45

PROGnosis: Oakland -2.5


Baltimore at Cleveland
Line: Baltimore-2
Total: 41.5

PROGnosis: Baltimore - 2

Week 9 Thursday Night Best Bet!

A quick note: I'm going with the Bengals -3 tonight as a Best Bet.

Week 8

Last week saw the home dogs lose for the first time this season. I think they'll return to their winning ways again this week.

My survivor picks this week is Seattle.

Monday Night Football

This week I theorized that the Vikings defense was so bad that out of the 5 QBs they've faced, 3 of them would have had their best game of the season against the Vikings. Here are the results:

Matt Stafford: Had his second best game of the season.

Jay Cutler: Had his second best game of the season.

Brian Hoyer: Had his worst game of the season. Three INTs. But also 3 TDs. And the Browns won.

Ben Roethlisberger: Had his second best game of the season.

Cam Newton: Had his best game of the season.

So, while I was wrong about the actual performance, I think my point is proven: Quarterbacks do very well against the Vikings.

 

Which leads me to Monday night. I'm looking for Eli Manning to have a big night, his best of a very bad season to be sure, but his best so far and maybe his high water mark of the year.

I expect the Giants to win their first game. I just can't make it a best bet.

Thoughts on Week 7

In Week 6 action there were 6 unders and 9 overs.

I'm looking at totals this week as going over once again. Last week's actual total numbers were strange. This week the totals line show the lowest median number and the second lowest average number. That says over. In fact, it should be an easy over week.

So far we've only seen one game all season with a total of 38.5 or less. Very unusual.

Home teams went down for the first time this season, although just barely at 7-8. Home dogs continue to impress with another winning week, 3-2. They've won every week so far and are sitting at 19-10,  65.5% 

Favorites have only won 2 out of 6 weeks.

Week 6 Best Bet

Oakland at Kansas Ctiy
Line: Kansas City -8.5
Total: 40.5

Kansas City is one of the two best stories this season in the NFL. I've got to go with Denver as the top story. They've got a great season going on, sitting at 5-0. Oakland is one of the worse teams in the NFL, bottom 25% for sure.

The thing about these two teams is that they have a long history of close games and winning at each others home field. The last time the Chiefs beat the Raiders in Kansas City was 2006. Over the last 6 games the Raiders are 5-1 against the Chiefs.

I'm not saying look for a Raider victory, but the line is set too high at 8.5. If it's the typical AFC WEST slugfest, the Raiders should cover.
 

PROGnosis: Oakland +8.5

Week 5 Report

The home teams won again. They've won every week, going 44-29 ATS. 60.3% And you know how people say the home dogs are the best bet in football? Guess what? They're right! Home dogs have won every week and  are sitting at 16-8 ATS. 66.7%

Unprecedented. This has to end, but who knows when? And the week it ends comes, it could end with the home teams going 7-8-1.

 Favorites are 36-37 ATS for the season.

Week 5 Best Bet

New Orleans at Chicago
Line: New Orleans -1
Total: 50

Right now the game comes down to not only who's got the better quarterback, but which one has the hot hand right now. The answer to both questions is Drew Brees. He looked unstoppable in last weeks game. The Saints are hitting their stride.
The Bears are a talented team, but they don't seem to have jelled yet.

The Saints are the better team right now and giving up just a point, they're the play this weekend.

PROGnosis: New Orleans -1

 

Week 4 Best Bets!

I like 2 games this week.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Line: Indianapolis -8.5
Total: 42.5

Indianapolis is a young team that is getting better all the time. Jacksonville is the worst team in the league and they should get steamrolled  by the Colts. This is a high line, but it should be an easy cover.

PROGnosis: Indianapolis -8.5

 

New England at Atlanta
Line: Atlanta -2
Total: 50

I think this total is way too high for 2 teams struggling on offense. While I don't see this as a defensive battle, I don't think either team can sustain long drives to score touchdowns. It's hard to see how they can reach 50 without a ton of turnovers and returns.

PROGnosis: under 50

 

 

Thursday Night Action

San Francisco at St. Louis
Line: San Francisco -3
Total: 42

I like the 49ers in this spot. They were embarrassed at home last week, but they had a few things thrown at them at the last minute. This week they play a divisional opponent who they know very well, they've had time to adjust to personnel changes and they can't overlook this game. I expect a focused, superior effort from them this week.

Prognosis: San Francisco -3

Week 3 Recap

Home favorites had a winning week for the first time this season, going 8-4 ATS. (Against the spread.) Home dogs have won ever week, now sitting at 8-4 ATS for the season. Home teams overall this season are 26-19 ATS, 57.8%.

 Look for the visitors to have a big week 4.

In 2012 there were 25 games all year with a total of 38.5 or less. So far this season, ZERO. The lines makers have pushed the average total up. This may be because of new rules, but I would lean towards totals under in week 4. The average total in week 4 is 45.0, which historically speaking, says an under week.

 

Look for most games to go under the total.

Week 3 Observations

Both the first two weeks had 8 unders and 8 overs on the totals.

Home favorites are 10-11 ATS (Against the spread)

Home dogs are 6-3 ATS  (I expect a bounce back this week to visiting favs winning.)

Home teams are 16-14 ATS

Favs are 13-17 ATS (I expect a bounce back here as well.)

I have no best bets this week. I was going to go with Minnesota as one tonight, but I'll just stay off of it. They are in a desperate situation and play their first game at home. As badly as they have played, they could have won both games so far and have been in both games. Cleveland is the right team, at the right time, for them to come up big. I like the Vikings even at -7.
 

I have 3 Best bets this week.

 

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Line: New Orleans -3
Total: 47

The Saints are riding high after getting their head coach back from his year long suspension. They still have the offense that can score at any time from anywhere. The defense needs some work, but they can do the job for the most part. Tampa Bay is one of the worst teams in football and I just don't see them keeping up with the Saints in this contest. This is the right team at the right line.

PROGnosis: New Orleans -3

Minnesota at Chicago

Line: Chicago -5.5
Total: 42

Minnesota will only go so far as their 3rd year quarterback will take them, which is to say if they want to go to the playoffs, they need to contact Ticketmaster. (Airfare not included in the cost of the ticket.) What a waste to have the best running back in football behind a quarterback who makes so many foolish mistakes. Last week they were dominated on both lines of scrimmage, supposedly the strength of the team. Chicago looks to be a solidly average team.

This game is being played outdoors where the Vikings have had a terrible time the past few years. The Vikings have lost 11 of their past 12 road games against the Bears and this doesn't look like the time for an offensive explosion from either team. Last season the two games they played had point totals of 38 and 35, with both games going under.  The Best Bet here is under 42.

PROGnosis: Under 42

 

San Francisco at Seattle
Line: Seattle -3
Total: 44.5

This should be a great game between two of the best teams in all of football. Seattle has been very tough at home. Last season they won every game at home and covered 7 of them. The 49ers are the team to beat this season in the NFC and I think they should win this game outright. They have enough offense to take control and keep control, of this game.

PROGnosis: San Francisco +3

Thursday Game

NY Jets at New England

New England -11.5
Total 43.5

 I don't recommend a play here, but I think the Patriots should handle the Jets by a couple of TDs. There are better games to go with this weekend.

Week 1 Picks

Carolina +3.5
Miami +1
Pittsburgh -7
New Orleans -3
Indianapolis -10
Cincinnati +3
Minnesota +5
Tampa Bay -3
New England -10
Kansas City -4
St. Louis -4.5
Green Bay +4.5
New York Giants +3.5
Philadelphia +3.5
Houston -4

No Best Bets this week.

Thursday, Sept. 5th, 2013

Baltimore at Denver

Denver -7.5

Total: 48.5

Aside from a Super Bowl rematch, this is about the best game I can think of to open another great NFL season. Talk about a revenge game! The Broncos have had this game on their minds for 8 months.  I can’t think of a better example.  It should be a great game. Let’s break it down.

The Ravens have lost 8 starters since the Super Bowl. While it’s true some of those players weren’t who they used to be, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis spring to mind, they certainly had the veteran leadership that a team needs. They might be able to gain strength as the season progresses, but they start out the year not as strong as last season.  

 
The Broncos are just as good as they were last year, maybe somewhat better because Manning has another year under his belt with the team.
 
I fully expect the Broncos to win the game, but that isn’t the issue is it? It isn’t who wins or loses that matters. It’s who covers the spread. Historically, the Super Bowl winners have a letdown the next season. That certainly comes into play here, but that isn’t a secret. Most of the betting public knows that and it’s accounted for in the line.  The line seems too high here. I think the Broncos should be more of a 5.5 favorite. People may say 2 points isn’t a lot of difference, but in this case, because it passes the magic point spread of 7, it’s a big deal. As far as the revenge factor goes, I believe that the Ravens have something to prove as well. They don’t think of themselves as a team that won the Super Bowl because of a fluke play in the Denver game and they’re feeling disrespected about being a 7.5 dog as the world champs.
 
PROGnosis:  Baltimore +7.5, under 48.5