Week 4 Best Bets

I have 4 Best Bets this week. All these games are for 1 unit.

PROGnosis: Oakland -3

PROGnosis: Cleveland +7.5

PROGnosis: Green Bay -8.5

 

PROGnosis: Arizona -7

A Tough Loss

You’ll find no excuses here, no should've, could've, or would haves. I lost my first pick of the year. The Colts went up by 14, but then gave up a last minute TD to win by 2 while being a 3 point favorite. On to next week!

 

 

WEEK 3 and a Best Bet!

I wasn't planning on making picks until week 5 in the NFL, but I’ve found a game that is very strong, so I’m making my first Best Bet of the season.

Indianapolis at Tennessee

Line:  Indianapolis -3

Total: 45.5

Look for the Colts to rebound and have a big game against the Titans. The 3 points is a reasonable to give on the road. The last time the Colts haven’t covered this line against the Titans was the 8^th game of the season in 2011.  Look for Andrew Luck to have a big day. Take the Colts for 1 unit.

PROGnosis: Indianapolis -3  

 

 

 

Denver at Kansas City

Make no mistake, the Kansas City Chiefs lost the game against the Broncos because of poor coaching and poor coaching decisions. I blame sloppy play on both the players and the coaches, but the main reason the Chiefs lost was because of the horrible play calling at the end of both halves.  At the end of the first half, up by 7 and really just needing to keep the clock moving and punt it away leaving the Broncos without much time to score, instead of the logical easy call to run the ball, they had Smith throw a pass that was intercepted. The Broncos then scored a TD. And then, with a half a minute to go in the fourth quarter, they decided to run the ball instead of just taking a knee and going to overtime. Charles fumbled the ball and it was returned for a TD. Of course the players bear responsibility, but the simple fact is they should never have been in that situation in the first place.

 

 

Week 1

My plan this season is to start releasing picks from week 5 on. Those plans are subject to change depending on a few factors, but rest assured, I won’t be making picks just to make picks and I won’t be forcing anything.

With that in mind I’ll tell you in advance that there will be weeks I recommend betting every game on the board, some weeks I may have zero picks. I’ll go where the facts lead me. My goal here isn’t to have a play on every game, every national game or even have a play every week. My goal is to win. Towards that end I have a rock solid plan in place that will be followed.

No plays in week 1, and while I don’t plan on having plays in week 2, I’ll go where the facts lead me. Check back before you make any bets.

Your bankroll is our business!

Win Percentage

What percentage of bets should a handicapper expect to win during an NFL season? When I first started out 18 years ago on ProgsPicks.com I asked friends and family that question. The answers I got most typically were around 70-75%. Even to this day when I ask people that’s about the response I get. That’s way too high of course. In fact 60% is too high, which surprises most people. 60% is very hard to achieve on a regular basis. In all my years of handicapping, I’ve hit over 60% twice. The truth is, if a handicapper is winning at a rate of 60%, he’s probably not winning enough. That may sound confusing, but I should be able to clear it up by the end of this article.

There are two ways to judge how someone is doing with their picks. The first is win percentage and the second is how many units they’re ahead. Units are used as a measure and not money because people have different bet sizes and it’s difficult to compare directly with different amounts of money in play. When calculating units won, add 1 for every pick won and subtract 1.1 for every losing pick.

Let’s look at two gamblers and see how they did. The first person goes 4-2 has a fantastic win percentage of 66.7%. Another person goes 7-4, which is a 63.6% winning rate. A very good winning percentage, but not as good as the first one.  Of course the fact the second person won almost 50% more units gets lost in the shuffle.  4-2 wins 1.8 units versus 7-4 which wins 2.6 units.

With that in mind, which of the two gamblers above did better? It depends on how you look at it. The first had a higher win rate. The second won more units. It may not be that the first person was better at picking winners, it might be that the second person bet on every game he thought he could win.

The breakeven point on betting in the NFL is 52.38% (You have to win 11 games for every 10 you lose. 11 divided by 21 equals 52.38 %.) If you’re presented with two games to bet on, one that wins at a rate of 60% and another that wins at a rate of 55%, how should you bet? If you’re trying to play it safe, minimize your risks and have the best chance of winning, you’d go with the 60% bet. However, the best play to win money is to bet on both games. While we’d all like to have a 60% chance of winning all our bets, those situations don’t come around all the time. To really make money in NFL betting you need to bet every game you have an advantage on. Any game, above say 54%, makes you money in the long run and if winning money is the goal, you should be taking advantage of every winning situation you can find.

To really judge how a handicapper is doing you have to consider both units won and winning percentage. However it's a mistake to be too concerned with win percentage.  How much money was won? However, it does matter how you win it.

 

As an example, if someone told you that they won $10,000 on betting football, are they a great handicapper? You'd have to ask a few questions. Like, how did you do it? If it turns out that this guy took all the money he had in the world and bet it on one game and won, I'd congratulate him. And then I'd walk away thinking this guy's an idiot.  But note, he won $10,000 and hit 100% of his bets! Does that make him a knowledgeable and great handicapper? Not in the least. It makes him lucky, very lucky, in the short run. Short run as in 1 bet.

 

So what’s the answer to what should a handicappers win rate be? It depends on the amount of bets. If he is making just one bet he has to hit 100% to make money. If he’s making 200 bets, 56% makes him a nice profit. As a general rule, the more bets you make the lower your win rate, but even a small winning rate can win over time.