Thursday, October 31, 2013

Week 9 Thursday Night Best Bet!

A quick note: I'm going with the Bengals -3 tonight as a Best Bet.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Week 8

Last week saw the home dogs lose for the first time this season. I think they'll return to their winning ways again this week.

My survivor picks this week is Seattle.

Saturday, October 19, 2013

Monday Night Football

This week I theorized that the Vikings defense was so bad that out of the 5 QBs they've faced, 3 of them would have had their best game of the season against the Vikings. Here are the results:

Matt Stafford: Had his second best game of the season.

Jay Cutler: Had his second best game of the season.

Brian Hoyer: Had his worst game of the season. Three INTs. But also 3 TDs. And the Browns won.

Ben Roethlisberger: Had his second best game of the season.

Cam Newton: Had his best game of the season.

So, while I was wrong about the actual performance, I think my point is proven: Quarterbacks do very well against the Vikings.
Which leads me to Monday night. I'm looking for Eli Manning to have a big night, his best of a very bad season to be sure, but his best so far and maybe his high water mark of the year.

I expect the Giants to win their first game. I just can't make it a best bet.

Friday, October 18, 2013

Thoughts on Week 7

In Week 6 action there were 6 unders and 9 overs.

I'm looking at totals this week as going over once again. Last week's actual total numbers were strange. This week the totals line show the lowest median number and the second lowest average number. That says over. In fact, it should be an easy over week.

So far we've only seen one game all season with a total of 38.5 or less. Very unusual.

Home teams went down for the first time this season, although just barely at 7-8. Home dogs continue to impress with another winning week, 3-2. They've won every week so far and are sitting at 19-10,  65.5% 

Favorites have only won 2 out of 6 weeks.

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Week 6 Best Bet

Oakland at Kansas Ctiy
Line: Kansas City -8.5
Total: 40.5

Kansas City is one of the two best stories this season in the NFL. I've got to go with Denver as the top story. They've got a great season going on, sitting at 5-0. Oakland is one of the worse teams in the NFL, bottom 25% for sure.

The thing about these two teams is that they have a long history of close games and winning at each others home field. The last time the Chiefs beat the Raiders in Kansas City was 2006. Over the last 6 games the Raiders are 5-1 against the Chiefs.

I'm not saying look for a Raider victory, but the line is set too high at 8.5. If it's the typical AFC WEST slugfest, the Raiders should cover.
PROGnosis: Oakland +8.5

Week 5 Report

The home teams won again. They've won every week, going 44-29 ATS. 60.3% And you know how people say the home dogs are the best bet in football? Guess what? They're right! Home dogs have won every week and  are sitting at 16-8 ATS. 66.7%
Unprecedented. This has to end, but who knows when? And the week it ends comes, it could end with the home teams going 7-8-1.

 Favorites are 36-37 ATS for the season.

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Week 5 Best Bet

New Orleans at Chicago
Line: New Orleans -1
Total: 50

Right now the game comes down to not only who's got the better quarterback, but which one has the hot hand right now. The answer to both questions is Drew Brees. He looked unstoppable in last weeks game. The Saints are hitting their stride.
The Bears are a talented team, but they don't seem to have jelled yet.

The Saints are the better team right now and giving up just a point, they're the play this weekend.

PROGnosis: New Orleans -1