Saturday, November 12, 2016


Week 10 Best Bets

I have 5 best bets for Sunday’s games below, but first an apology for Thursday night’s game. I made a mistake. I really liked both Cleveland and the over. Then I had the bright idea to release both as best bets. I don’t like to have 2 bets on 1 game because I have to call the game perfectly to win. But in this case with a high spread of 10 and a reasonably low total of 45, all Cleveland had to do was get to at least 17 points to ensure that we couldn’t lose both bets, while giving us an excellent chance at winning both. They’ve been averaging more than 17 a game so far this year. I calculated it was more likely that we would win both bets than lose both bets, with the most likely result being one bet wining and one bet losing.
I don’t hate the play or the reasoning. My mistake was in making them best bets. I believe with games in that situation, high spread rather low total, this type of play shows a profit over time. However, the best bets should be used for plays that are going to win this week, not a numbers game that are going to win over the long haul. I’m sorry for that and I won’t do it again. What I should say is, if I do it again, it will be as a suggestion, not as a best bet.

Now on to the rest of the best!

PROGnosis: Kansas City +3

PROGnosis: Minnesota/Washington under 41.5

PROGnosis: Atlanta -1.5

PROGnosis: San Diego -4

PROGnosis: Seattle +7.5

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