Week 3 Pick

Denver at Seattle

Line: Seattle -5
Total: 48.5

Seattle is the team that matches up the best against Denver in all the NFL. Last season's Super Bowl was no fluke as Denver had no answers for anything that Seattle did. While Peyton Manning is still the smartest quarterback and the hardest working, he's lost a little zip on the ball. Against the fastest secondary in football that spells trouble for him.

I'm hearing how this is a revenge game for the Broncos, that Manning has had 8 months to figure out Seattle's defense and that this time it'll be different. Wanting revenge and being able to take it are two totally different things. I love the fact that Seattle lost last week on the road. Coming home, where they've been unstoppable for almost 2 years is just going to add fuel to the fire.

PROGnosis: Seattle -5

Reality sets in

I landed with a thud going 0-3 this week. You’ll find no excuses here. I'm not going into panic mode. Unfortunately having losing weeks is part of the game. I just hate putting up a goose egg.  I’ll make note of what happened and throw it into the mix next week. I’m sitting at 4-5 this season, -1.5 units.

Home favorites lost for the second week in a row, going 5-6 ATS.  Ten games went under this week while 6 went over. Early numbers tell me that the majority of games will go over in week 3.

I’ll put this information to good work next week.

 

Week 2 Picks

I have a total of 3 Best Bets this week. Go with 1 unit on each. I released the Denver -13.5 pick early as I expected this line to rise over the course of the week. Instead it’s gone down. Normally lines tend to rise as the week goes on, so this is unusual. Even though you can find it at the better line of Denver-12 right now, I have to count the game at the line it was when I released it.  

Prognosis: Denver -13.5

Prognosis: Green Bay -8

Prognosis: Atlanta/Cincinnati over 49

 

 

Week 2 Best Bet Alert!

Kansas City at Denver

Line: Denver -13.5

Total: 51

My first pick of week 2 is Denver -13.5. This line is going to rise and later in the week, when it hits 14 or 14.5, much of the value will be gone. Get it now!

The Broncos built a big lead last week and then let it get close by the end of the game with some sloppy play. When you’re 3 touchdowns ahead in the fourth quarter that can happen. However, the coaching staff won’t let that happen again, especially against a hated divisional rival. Manning appears to have not missed a beat and he should put up big numbers against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs made the Titans offense look good last week, much better than they are. Is it possible they can make the Broncos offense look otherworldly? More probable than possible I’d say.

While I don’t love giving 13.5, there’s a lot of value here.

PROGnosis: Denver -13.5

Times Are a Changing

Football handicapping is an ever changing field. It takes experience to put all the puzzle pieces in place. One of the hardest things to learn is what works one season probably won’t the next.  Some of this is because of the way different coaches approach the game. Some decades the running game was king, in others the passing game. In the 70s just the Dallas Cowboys used the shotgun formation regularly. Today all teams use it, some more than others. Rules change and make it easier to pass, or harder to generate a pass rush. To illustrate this I’m going to look at the 2012 season and compare a few things to the 2013 season. Before the 2013 season the NFL made several rule changes. I predicted then that the rule changes would increase scoring and cautioned people to look for more games going over the total than under. Did the rule changes have any tangible effects? Decidedly yes.

Football games can be bet against the spread, ATS, and also against the total. The total is the total points scored for both teams. When the total is bet it doesn’t matter who wins the game or by how much. Only the total points scored matter.

2012 saw 129 games going under the total and 123 going over. After the rule changes, 2013 saw 119 games go under the total and 132 go over. That’s a fairly small swing. One thing that really stands out is the number of games with a total of 38 or less. In 2012, 17 games had the total set at 38 points or less. In 2013, 0. As in zero. ZERO. Just for reference, 2011 saw 33 games with a total of 38 or lower. The zero number in 2013 is frankly a bit shocking to me, that’s unheard of. I doubt we’ll see that again this season. It does show however that the odds makers set the overall totals higher because of more scoring. How much did the new rules increase scoring? It increased 1.2 points a game in 2013, or 2.6%. Scoring has been on the rise since 2005, increasing 7 of the 8 years. In 2005 the average total in a game was 41.2 points. In 2013 it was 46.8, increasing 5.6 points a game in 8 years. The scoring trend is up and we’re really seeing it in the totals.

Does this mean we can blindly call for games to go over the total this season? No, or course not. Case in point, in 2012 if we would have bet all games with a total of 40.5 to 42.5 under, we would have been 24-12, an excellent record. However, betting the same parameters in 2013 we would have gone 25-38, a terrible record. This is what I meant by what works one season probably won’t the next.  This is where my experience and knowledge come into play. Armed with the knowledge of the rule change that would increase scoring, coupled with the 7 year trend of increasing scores, which allowed me to correctly predict the totals moving towards more overs last season, I avoided betting the unders in situations like that. If the situation showed games more likely to go over, I would have given it much more weight.

I’ll end this with a trend I’ll be looking at this season. Over the last two seasons when the total of the game has been 54 or higher, the over bet has been the play. In 2012 it went 6-2 and in 2013 it went 10-4, for a two year record of 16-6. That might mean something when coupled with other factors. Or it might not. Fully half of the 10-4 record betting the overs from last season was because of the great year that Manning had in Denver. The Broncos were 5-2 going over the total when the total was 54 or higher. The truth is, I’d expect to see the trend reverse itself this season.  Why? Because the Broncos won’t score as much but the betting public will force the totals higher on the Broncos games, making them a bargain for under bets. Am I calling for blindly betting every game of theirs under? No. But I’ll look for good spots to exploit this situation.

Solid Week 1

The first week got a little crazy, but I managed to negotiate my way through it to start the season winning right out of the box. I went 4-2 on Best Bets for the week, showing a 1.8 unit profit.  I’d take 1.8 units ahead every week and be very happy with it.

In the NFL home favorites had a terrible week going 4-9 ATS. Home dogs went 2-1 ATS, which made the home teams overall 6-10 ATS. The favorites went 5-11 ATS for the week as the dogs howled. Finally, there were 11 unders and 5 overs this week.

 

I’ll be posting my thoughts all week and releasing Best Bets as I get them so be sure and check back all week long!

 

 

Week 1 picks

My first pick of the season was a winner! A good start, but I also have a few more picks to finish strong with.

Before I get into my picks I want to be clear what I’m aiming at for this season. I’m looking to press every advantage I can find and bet on every game I see as a winner. Some weeks I’ll have lots of picks. I realize that most gamblers only want to see a few Best Bets. I understand that. However the fewer amount of picks the less potential for profit. I’m looking to maximize the amount of units won this season, which translates into more money in my pocket. (Refer to my article on Win Percentage in my blog from Monday September 1, 2014.)

If you have a bankroll, I recommend that you calculate what 2% of it is and bet that on every pick I give out for the whole season. This is how I manage my bankroll. If you don’t have a bankroll, I strongly urge you to start one. If you don’t want to have one, you’re just looking to win some money, then find a bet amount that you’re comfortable with and bet that amount on every pick I give out this season. Do not vary your bet size! (Refer to my article on Bet Sizing in my blog from Monday, August 18, 2014.) I’ll let you know if and when to make a change.

Below are the Best Bets for the rest of week 1.

PROGnosis: Minnesota/St Louis UNDER 43

PROGnosis: Philadelphia -10.5
PROGnosis: Chicago -7
PROGnosis: Denver -7.5
PROGnosis: Detroit -6

Your Bankroll is Our Business!