I have one best bet this week and it’s New Orleans -6.5
Tennessee at Kansas City
Line: Kansas City -8.5Total: 44.5
The Titans have lost 2 of their last 4 games, and have lost 3 of their last 4 road games. For the season their record straight up on the road is 3-5 and ATS 2-5-1.
The Chiefs have won and covered their last 4 games, 3 of them at home. At home they’re 6-2 straight up and also 6-2 against the spread.
In the playoffs, it’s a good idea to go with the better coach, which in this case is Andy Reid of the Chiefs. It’s also a good idea to go against a quarterback making his first start in the playoffs, which means to go against the Titans.
I like the Chiefs, but this line is too high to bet on them.
PROGnosis: Kansas City -8.5
Atlanta at L.A. Rams
Line: L.A. Rams -6.5Total: 48.5
The Falcons have won 3 of it’s last 4 games. They’ve won 2 of their last 3 road games. For the season they’re 5-3 on the road, 3-5 ATS. They haven’t scored over 24 points in their 5 games. In the last 6 games they haven’t given up more than 23 points.
The Rams have lost 2 of their last 4 games. They’ve also lost their last 2 home games. At home this season they’re 4-4 overall and 4-4 ATS.
I think the Falcons can stay in this game because they’ve been there before. While the Rams are the better team, they’re a young team in the playoffs for the first time and that hurt them.
PROGnosis: Atlanta +6.5
Buffalo at Jacksonville
Line: Jacksonville -8.5Total: 39.5
The Bills have won 3 of their last 4 games. They’re 3-5 on the road, 4-4 ATS
The Jaguars have lost their last 2 games, both on the road. At home, they’ve won their last 5 games while covering 4 of them. Overall at home their 6-2, 5-3 ATS.
This spread is too high. I don’t trust either team and I don’t see the value in betting either one. I do think Buffalo can stay in this game and cover the inflated spread.
PROGnosis: Buffalo +8.5
Carolina at New Orleans
Line: New Orleans -6.5Total: 48.5
The Panthers have won 3 of their last 4 games. On the road they’re 5-3 overall and 5-3 ATS.
The Saints have won 2 of their last 3 games. At home they’re 6-2, 4-4 ATS.
These teams have played twice this season with the Saints winning both games, 34-13 in Carolina and 31-21 in New Orleans, covering both times.
Don’t fall for the old it’s hard to beat a team 3 times in the NFL. While that statement is correct, it’s correct for different reasons than people think. The reason it’s so hard is because it’s hard to even play a team 3 times a season, not necessarily actually beating a team three times. Sure, if before the season started you had a chance to bet against the Saints beating the Panthers 3 times it would have been a great bet. Now they’ve already beat them twice, the hard part is over and it comes down to this game. Since the merger, this situation has happened 20 times, with a team winning all three games 13 times, for a record of 13-7, 65%.
PROGnosis: New Orleans -6.5