Picking Winners Straight Up vs. Against the Spread

I’ve often been told by people that they have no trouble picking the winners of NFL games, but that they don’t do well against the spread (ATS). They have a tough time believing me when I tell them that if they can pick the winner of the games, then they should be crushing the bookies by betting against the spread.

Here’s the proof:

The NFL sees 256 games a year. In the 2014 season, there was 1 game that ended in a tie and 3 games that saw the teams push ATS. Of the 252 games remaining, the winner of the game covered the spread 209 times. The winner covered the spread 82.9% of the time.

In the 2015 season 7 games that saw the teams push ATS. Of the 249 games remaining, the winner of the game covered the spread 214 times. The winner covered ATS 85.9% of the time.

In the 2016 season, there were 2 games that ended in a tie and 7 games that saw the teams push ATS. Of the 247 games remaining, the winner of the game covered ATS 213 times. The winner covered ATS 86.29% of the time.

Over the last 3 seasons, just picking the winner of the game would give a record of 636-112 ATS and a fantastic winning percentage of 85.0%.

The reason the number comes out so high is that when the favorite wins the game, they cover the spread a little more than 50% of the time, but when the underdog wins the game, they cover 100% of the time. That really messes with the numbers.

You see, it’s not so easy to just pick the winner of the game, otherwise we’d all be getting rich betting the money line, right?