The Super Bowl!
One best bet for the Super Bowl and it’s New England -4.5
If you want to bet the total, I like the over at 48.5, but
not as a best bet.
Friday, February 2, 2018
Thursday, January 18, 2018
Thursday, January 11, 2018
Divisional Round
I have 3 best bets this week.
Atlanta -3
New England -13.5
Pittsburgh -7
Atlanta at Philadelphia
Line: Atlanta-3
Total: 41.5
PROGnosis: Atlanta -3
Tennessee at New England
Line: New England- 13.5
Total: 48
PROGnosis: New England -13.5
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
Line: Pittsburgh -7
Total: 41
PROGnosis: Pittsburgh -7
New Orleans at Minnesota
Line: Minnesota-5
Total: 46
PROGnosis: New Orleans +5
Friday, January 5, 2018
Wildcard Weekend!
I have one best bet this week and it’s New Orleans -6.5
Tennessee at Kansas City
Line: Kansas City -8.5
Total: 44.5
The Titans have lost 2 of their last 4 games, and have lost
3 of their last 4 road games. For the season their record straight up on the
road is 3-5 and ATS 2-5-1.
The Chiefs have won and covered their last 4 games, 3 of
them at home. At home they’re 6-2 straight up and also 6-2 against the spread.
In the playoffs, it’s a good idea to go with the better
coach, which in this case is Andy Reid of the Chiefs. It’s also a good idea to
go against a quarterback making his first start in the playoffs, which means to
go against the Titans.
I like the Chiefs, but this line is too high to bet on them.
PROGnosis: Kansas City -8.5
Atlanta at L.A. Rams
Line: L.A. Rams -6.5
Total: 48.5
The Falcons have won 3 of it’s last 4 games. They’ve won 2
of their last 3 road games. For the season they’re 5-3 on the road, 3-5
ATS. They haven’t scored over 24 points
in their 5 games. In the last 6 games they haven’t given up more than 23
points.
The Rams have lost 2 of their last 4 games. They’ve also
lost their last 2 home games. At home this season they’re 4-4 overall and 4-4
ATS.
I think the Falcons can stay in this game because they’ve
been there before. While the Rams are
the better team, they’re a young team in the playoffs for the first time and
that hurt them.
PROGnosis: Atlanta +6.5
Buffalo at Jacksonville
Line: Jacksonville -8.5
Total: 39.5
The Bills have won 3 of their last 4 games. They’re 3-5 on
the road, 4-4 ATS
The Jaguars have lost their last 2 games, both on the road.
At home, they’ve won their last 5 games while covering 4 of them. Overall at
home their 6-2, 5-3 ATS.
This spread is too high. I don’t trust either team and I don’t
see the value in betting either one. I do think Buffalo can stay in this game and
cover the inflated spread.
PROGnosis: Buffalo +8.5
Carolina at New Orleans
Line: New Orleans -6.5
Total: 48.5
The Panthers have won 3 of their last 4 games. On the road
they’re 5-3 overall and 5-3 ATS.
The Saints have won 2 of their last 3 games. At home they’re
6-2, 4-4 ATS.
These teams have played twice this season with the Saints
winning both games, 34-13 in Carolina and 31-21 in New Orleans, covering both
times.
Don’t fall for the old it’s hard to beat a team 3 times in
the NFL. While that statement is correct, it’s correct for different reasons
than people think. The reason it’s so
hard is because it’s hard to even play a team 3 times a season, not necessarily
actually beating a team three times. Sure, if before the season started you had
a chance to bet against the Saints beating the Panthers 3 times it would have
been a great bet. Now they’ve already beat them twice, the hard part is over and
it comes down to this game. Since the merger, this situation has happened 20
times, with a team winning all three games 13 times, for a record of 13-7, 65%.
PROGnosis: New Orleans -6.5
Friday, December 29, 2017
Thursday, December 21, 2017
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