Super Bowl!

Denver vs. Seattle

Line: Denver -2.5
Total: 48

The most important factor in this game,  first and foremost, is the weather. Those handicappers who make their picks a week early, beware! If they liked the Seahawks, they could make the pick early. If someone likes the Seahawks in good weather then they should love them as the weather gets worse. But if they were picking the Broncos I believe that they were takinga big risk. If there were high winds and/or a snow storm I'd like the Seahawks. This forecast is the best the Broncos could hope for. Temperatures in the low 40's, little wind and a slight chance of rain. If this Super Bowl were being played in San Diego, I'd give the Broncos a big edge. In this game, under these conditions, I'm going with the Broncos.

The truth is I don't see a great play here, certainly not like the Lock of the Year that I hit in week 16. You can make a solid argument for either team, but the Broncos experience wins out.

PROGnosis: Denver -2.5, Under 48

 

Week 16

Lock of the year!!



Minnesota at Cincinnati  
Line:Cincinnati -8
Total: 47.5

This total is way to low. The Vikings have scored at least 20 in their last 8 games, 4 on the road and 4 at home. During that stretch they've also scored in the 30s twice and the 40s once. Their defense has given up at least 20 in every game this season. They've averaged given up 30.4 points a game this season. Over their last 4 games the average score has been 31-26.

The Bengals have scored at least 41 in each of it's last 3 home games. Over their last 4 games the average score has been 30-22.

These teams have both been scoring, and allowing a ton of points the whole season. Why should it stop now?

PROGnosis: Over 47.5

Week 15

Two Best Bets this week.

Philadelphia at Minnesota
Line: Philadelphia -6
Total: 53

PROGnosis: Philadelphia -6

Kansas City at Oakland
Line: Kansas City -6
Total: 43.5

PROGnosis: Kansas City -6

Week 13

I took the Tampa Bay/Carolina game over 41.5 based on the fact that this season games set at 41.5 have gone under 1 time and over 7 times. Further, games with a line of 41 have gone under 4 times and over 11 times. I figured why fight it? I'll take the over.

Week 11 Trends

My system predicts a solid over week on totals, so lean that way. The first game came in over the total so that's a good start.

Still only one game all season  has had a total of 38.5 or less. Scoring is way up this season.

 Home dogs have lost only one week so far.

 Home favorites have lost 2 weeks in a row.

 Dogs have won 2 weeks in a row.

 Home teams have lost 2 weeks in a row.

Week 10

I'm going with San Francisco/Carolina over 43.5 this week as a Best Bet.

My survivor pick this week is Tennessee. 

Week 10

Washington at Minnesota
Line: Washington -2.5
Total: 49.5

 Fun trivia!

 

What do Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Minnesota have in common?

 They haven't won a game on American soil this season. Minnesota's one win came against Pittsburgh in London.

 Two quarterbacks, Peyton Manning and Nick Foles  have more touchdown passes in a single game this year than all of the Minnesota quarterbacks have had all season.

 Two Best Bets here.

 PROGnosis: Washington -2.5, OVER 49.5