Thursday week 9

I'm going with New Orleans -3 tonight.

PROGnosis: New Orleans -3

Week 8 Picks!

I’ve started the week out at 2-0 getting both the side and total Thursday night. It’s go time! Here are my picks for the rest of the week:

PROGnosis: Detroit/Atlanta under 46.5

PROGnosis:  Seattle/Carolina over 45

PROGnosis: St Louis/Kansas City over 44

PROGnosis: Baltimore -1

PROGnosis: Houston -2

PROGnosis: Indianapolis -3

PROGnosis: Oakland/Cleveland under 43.5

PROGnosis: Green Bay +2

PROGnosis: Green Bay/New Orleans under 55.5

 

 

Week 8 Thursday Night Pick!

I like both bets here and this is the kind of situation where I think it's hard to lose both bets.

PROGnosis: Denver -9

PROGnosis: San Diego/Denver over 51

Week 7 Comes Up Big For the Prognosticator!

 

I had a great week with 8 wins, 3 losses and a push.  I’ve won the last 3 weeks in a row. The YTD numbers look like this:

 

Week	w	l		units won
1	4	2	66.7%	1.8
2	0	3	0.0%	-3.3
3	4	3	57.1%	0.7
4	2	5	28.6%	-3.5
5	1	0	100.0%	1
6	3	2	60.0%	0.8
7	8	3	72.7%	4.7
Total	22	18	55.0%	2.2

 

Week 7 Final Picks

I’ve been working all year for this moment. I've NEVER worked so hard in the offseason as I have this year. Now is my time. I’ve finally got enough data from this season to unleash all my power plays and games where I see advantage. Lots of picks this week.  My Best Bets are:

PROGnosis: Tennessee +6

PROGnosis: Miami +3

PROGnosis: Green Bay -6.5

PROGnosis: Seattle -6.5

PROGnosis: Arizona -3.5

PROGnosis: Indianapolis -3

PROGnosis: Houston +3

PROGnosis: Cleveland/Jacksonville under 45

PROGnosis: New Orleans/Detroit under 47

PROGnosis: Carolina/Green Bay over 49.5

PROGnosis: Kansas City/San Diego over 45

PROGnosis: New York/Dallas over 48

There were a few strong games that my formulas liked, but I didn’t want to pull the trigger. Cleveland -5.5 just doesn’t seem right to me. Jacksonville has been more competitive of late and can Cleveland be trusted as a big road favorite? It had San Diego -3.5, but I like the Chiefs chances to win this game straight up. It also had Dallas -6.5, but that line seems way too high. I thought it best to just let that game go. I also see Tennessee/Washington as a strong over play, but I think 46 is a little too high to make it a best bet.

 I weeded those 4 games out for various reasons. I had 16 games and whittled it down to 12.  I’ve done my part. Now can the teams come through?  

 

 

Trending

When the game involves a home favorite games go under 37 and over 26.   58.73% of the time.

When the game involves a home dog the games go over 21 and under 7.  75% of the time.

 

 

 

 

Review

 

Another winning week for me at 3-2. Two winning weeks in a row! Four out of six weeks a winner on best bets! However, I’m still down for the season. My losing weeks were devastating, my winning weeks just barely winning.

What to make of the Cowboys? Are they that good? I don’t think so, but there’s no doubt now that they have a punchers chance against anyone.

What to make of the Seahawks? In week 5 they didn’t play well but won and covered. They were excused because they were on the road. They were even gave extra credit because, like a true champion, they can be off their game, get into trouble and still win.  But how do we explain away the Dallas game? Again they looked sloppy. I thought that after the game against Washington, they would have a good week of practice and be laser focused at home. Against Dallas everything went their way early and they still lost. At home no less. 

 

 

Week 6 Final Picks

I'm starting the week off 1-0 with my win on Thursday night with the Colts. I've got 5 more picks. I'm really loving this week.

PROGnosis: Denver-9.5

PROGnosis:  San Diego -7

PROGnosis:  Green Bay -3

PROGnosis:  Giants +3

PROGnosis: Detroit/Minnesota under 43.5

 

 

 

Week 6

Indianapolis at Houston

Line: Indianapolis -3

Total: 47

I like the Colts tonight for several reasons, chief among them is that playing on Thursday night, with the shortened week of preparation, a quality quarterback becomes even more important than usual.  Andrew Luck is already one of the best QBs in the league. He’s the key here. Giving up 3 points on the road has some value with a great QB on a better team. Luck has a hot hand right now, passing for over 300 yards in each of his last 3 games. The Colts need this game and there is no reason for them to not be laser focused on the Texans. The winner of this game stands alone on top of the AFC South.

PROGnosis: Indianapolis -3

Week 5 Recap

I had one best bet last week on the Packers-8 and it won going away.  I’m not happy with my results so far obviously, but I’m really pumped about how things are shaping up. The numbers I’m seeing for this week’s games have me very excited.

I wanted to give a quick review of the numbers so far this season. Home favorites are 26-29 ATS. (Against the spread.) Home dogs are 9-12 ATS. That makes the home teams only 35-41 ATS. Favorites overall are 38-38. With the totals, 39 games have gone under and 37 have gone over.

I’m sitting at 13-15, 46.4% -3.5 units. It’s time to get to work.

Week 5 Picks

I won with the Packers on Thursday night and I’m leaving this week at that. I don’t feel comfortable with too many games this week.

I've got Green Bay -8 tonight. I'll be back later with thoughts from last week.