Week 4 Best Bets!

I like 2 games this week.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Line: Indianapolis -8.5
Total: 42.5

Indianapolis is a young team that is getting better all the time. Jacksonville is the worst team in the league and they should get steamrolled  by the Colts. This is a high line, but it should be an easy cover.

PROGnosis: Indianapolis -8.5

 

New England at Atlanta
Line: Atlanta -2
Total: 50

I think this total is way too high for 2 teams struggling on offense. While I don't see this as a defensive battle, I don't think either team can sustain long drives to score touchdowns. It's hard to see how they can reach 50 without a ton of turnovers and returns.

PROGnosis: under 50

 

 

Thursday Night Action

San Francisco at St. Louis
Line: San Francisco -3
Total: 42

I like the 49ers in this spot. They were embarrassed at home last week, but they had a few things thrown at them at the last minute. This week they play a divisional opponent who they know very well, they've had time to adjust to personnel changes and they can't overlook this game. I expect a focused, superior effort from them this week.

Prognosis: San Francisco -3

Week 3 Recap

Home favorites had a winning week for the first time this season, going 8-4 ATS. (Against the spread.) Home dogs have won ever week, now sitting at 8-4 ATS for the season. Home teams overall this season are 26-19 ATS, 57.8%.

 Look for the visitors to have a big week 4.

In 2012 there were 25 games all year with a total of 38.5 or less. So far this season, ZERO. The lines makers have pushed the average total up. This may be because of new rules, but I would lean towards totals under in week 4. The average total in week 4 is 45.0, which historically speaking, says an under week.

 

Look for most games to go under the total.

Week 3 Observations

Both the first two weeks had 8 unders and 8 overs on the totals.

Home favorites are 10-11 ATS (Against the spread)

Home dogs are 6-3 ATS  (I expect a bounce back this week to visiting favs winning.)

Home teams are 16-14 ATS

Favs are 13-17 ATS (I expect a bounce back here as well.)

I have no best bets this week. I was going to go with Minnesota as one tonight, but I'll just stay off of it. They are in a desperate situation and play their first game at home. As badly as they have played, they could have won both games so far and have been in both games. Cleveland is the right team, at the right time, for them to come up big. I like the Vikings even at -7.
 

I have 3 Best bets this week.

 

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Line: New Orleans -3
Total: 47

The Saints are riding high after getting their head coach back from his year long suspension. They still have the offense that can score at any time from anywhere. The defense needs some work, but they can do the job for the most part. Tampa Bay is one of the worst teams in football and I just don't see them keeping up with the Saints in this contest. This is the right team at the right line.

PROGnosis: New Orleans -3

Minnesota at Chicago

Line: Chicago -5.5
Total: 42

Minnesota will only go so far as their 3rd year quarterback will take them, which is to say if they want to go to the playoffs, they need to contact Ticketmaster. (Airfare not included in the cost of the ticket.) What a waste to have the best running back in football behind a quarterback who makes so many foolish mistakes. Last week they were dominated on both lines of scrimmage, supposedly the strength of the team. Chicago looks to be a solidly average team.

This game is being played outdoors where the Vikings have had a terrible time the past few years. The Vikings have lost 11 of their past 12 road games against the Bears and this doesn't look like the time for an offensive explosion from either team. Last season the two games they played had point totals of 38 and 35, with both games going under.  The Best Bet here is under 42.

PROGnosis: Under 42

 

San Francisco at Seattle
Line: Seattle -3
Total: 44.5

This should be a great game between two of the best teams in all of football. Seattle has been very tough at home. Last season they won every game at home and covered 7 of them. The 49ers are the team to beat this season in the NFC and I think they should win this game outright. They have enough offense to take control and keep control, of this game.

PROGnosis: San Francisco +3

Thursday Game

NY Jets at New England

New England -11.5
Total 43.5

 I don't recommend a play here, but I think the Patriots should handle the Jets by a couple of TDs. There are better games to go with this weekend.

Week 1 Picks

Carolina +3.5
Miami +1
Pittsburgh -7
New Orleans -3
Indianapolis -10
Cincinnati +3
Minnesota +5
Tampa Bay -3
New England -10
Kansas City -4
St. Louis -4.5
Green Bay +4.5
New York Giants +3.5
Philadelphia +3.5
Houston -4

No Best Bets this week.

Thursday, Sept. 5th, 2013

Baltimore at Denver

Denver -7.5

Total: 48.5

Aside from a Super Bowl rematch, this is about the best game I can think of to open another great NFL season. Talk about a revenge game! The Broncos have had this game on their minds for 8 months.  I can’t think of a better example.  It should be a great game. Let’s break it down.

The Ravens have lost 8 starters since the Super Bowl. While it’s true some of those players weren’t who they used to be, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis spring to mind, they certainly had the veteran leadership that a team needs. They might be able to gain strength as the season progresses, but they start out the year not as strong as last season.  

 
The Broncos are just as good as they were last year, maybe somewhat better because Manning has another year under his belt with the team.
 
I fully expect the Broncos to win the game, but that isn’t the issue is it? It isn’t who wins or loses that matters. It’s who covers the spread. Historically, the Super Bowl winners have a letdown the next season. That certainly comes into play here, but that isn’t a secret. Most of the betting public knows that and it’s accounted for in the line.  The line seems too high here. I think the Broncos should be more of a 5.5 favorite. People may say 2 points isn’t a lot of difference, but in this case, because it passes the magic point spread of 7, it’s a big deal. As far as the revenge factor goes, I believe that the Ravens have something to prove as well. They don’t think of themselves as a team that won the Super Bowl because of a fluke play in the Denver game and they’re feeling disrespected about being a 7.5 dog as the world champs.
 
PROGnosis:  Baltimore +7.5, under 48.5