These are all best bets, but I want to be clear here that my
system has 5 of the best bets while I’ve added 3 on my own. My system has had
an excellent season so far while I’ve struggled. I’ve put more time into my
picks this week and I hope to a return to prior years form. My picks are
Cleveland, Green Bay and Baltimore.
So far this season the home field advantage in the NFL is a
very high 5.6, while historically it’s just about 3. Does that mean we should
just automatically take the home teams? Not at all! As it turns out the home
teams are 68-77 ATS so far. Remember, a good home field advantage doesn’t mean a
team is winning at home, just that their point differential is better at home.
I've identified my first lock of the year. I love the Saints -5.5. The 49ers just don't have a good pass rush, they only have 4 sacks all year from their defensive line. If the only way they can put pressure on Drew Brees is to blitz him, he should eat them alive. On my locks of the year, of which I normally have but 1 or 2 a year, I recommend betting 2 units.