Friday, February 2, 2018


The Super Bowl!


 

One best bet for the Super Bowl and it’s New England -4.5

 

If you want to bet the total, I like the over at 48.5, but not as a best bet.
 

Thursday, January 18, 2018


Championship Weekend


 

Two best bets this weekend!
 

Jacksonville at New England    

 
Line: New England -7.5

Total: 46.5

PROGnosis: New England -7.5

 

Minnesota at Philadelphia.  

 
Line: Minnesota -3

Total: 39

PROGnosis: Minnesota -3
 
 

Thursday, January 11, 2018


Divisional Round


 

I have 3 best bets this week.

Atlanta -3

New England -13.5

Pittsburgh -7

 

 

 

Atlanta at Philadelphia


Line: Atlanta-3

Total: 41.5

PROGnosis: Atlanta -3

 

 

Tennessee at New England


Line: New England- 13.5

Total: 48

PROGnosis: New England -13.5

 

 

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh


Line: Pittsburgh -7

Total: 41

PROGnosis: Pittsburgh -7

 

 

New Orleans at Minnesota


Line: Minnesota-5

Total: 46
 

PROGnosis: New Orleans +5

Friday, January 5, 2018


Wildcard Weekend!


 

I have one best bet this week and it’s New Orleans -6.5

 

Tennessee at Kansas City

 

Line: Kansas City  -8.5
Total: 44.5

The Titans have lost 2 of their last 4 games, and have lost 3 of their last 4 road games. For the season their record straight up on the road is 3-5 and ATS 2-5-1.

The Chiefs have won and covered their last 4 games, 3 of them at home. At home they’re 6-2 straight up and also 6-2 against the spread.

 

In the playoffs, it’s a good idea to go with the better coach, which in this case is Andy Reid of the Chiefs. It’s also a good idea to go against a quarterback making his first start in the playoffs, which means to go against the Titans.

I like the Chiefs, but this line is too high to bet on them.

 

PROGnosis: Kansas City  -8.5

 

Atlanta at L.A. Rams


Line: L.A. Rams  -6.5
Total: 48.5

The Falcons have won 3 of it’s last 4 games. They’ve won 2 of their last 3 road games. For the season they’re 5-3 on the road, 3-5 ATS.  They haven’t scored over 24 points in their 5 games. In the last 6 games they haven’t given up more than 23 points.

The Rams have lost 2 of their last 4 games. They’ve also lost their last 2 home games. At home this season they’re 4-4 overall and 4-4 ATS.

I think the Falcons can stay in this game because they’ve been there before.  While the Rams are the better team, they’re a young team in the playoffs for the first time and that hurt them.

PROGnosis: Atlanta +6.5

 

Buffalo at Jacksonville


Line: Jacksonville -8.5
Total: 39.5

The Bills have won 3 of their last 4 games. They’re 3-5 on the road, 4-4 ATS

The Jaguars have lost their last 2 games, both on the road. At home, they’ve won their last 5 games while covering 4 of them. Overall at home their 6-2, 5-3 ATS.

This spread is too high. I don’t trust either team and I don’t see the value in betting either one. I do think Buffalo can stay in this game and cover the inflated spread.

PROGnosis: Buffalo +8.5

 

 

Carolina at New Orleans


Line: New Orleans -6.5
Total: 48.5

The Panthers have won 3 of their last 4 games. On the road they’re 5-3 overall and 5-3 ATS.

The Saints have won 2 of their last 3 games. At home they’re 6-2, 4-4 ATS.

These teams have played twice this season with the Saints winning both games, 34-13 in Carolina and 31-21 in New Orleans, covering both times.

Don’t fall for the old it’s hard to beat a team 3 times in the NFL. While that statement is correct, it’s correct for different reasons than people think. The reason  it’s so hard is because it’s hard to even play a team 3 times a season, not necessarily actually beating a team three times. Sure, if before the season started you had a chance to bet against the Saints beating the Panthers 3 times it would have been a great bet. Now they’ve already beat them twice, the hard part is over and it comes down to this game. Since the merger, this situation has happened 20 times, with a team winning all three games 13 times, for a record of 13-7, 65%.

PROGnosis: New Orleans -6.5
 

 

Friday, December 29, 2017

Thursday, December 21, 2017

Week 16 Best Bet



I have one best bet this week.
 
 
Jacksonville -4.5

Friday, December 15, 2017

Week 15 Best Bets!


I have 3 best bets this week.

Detroit -5 vs Chicago

Baltimore -7 vs Cleveland

Arizona +4.5 vs Washington