I'm looking at totals this week as going over once again. Last
week's actual total numbers were strange. This week the totals line show the
lowest median number and the second lowest average number. That says over. In
fact, it should be an easy over week.
So far we've only seen one game all season with a total of 38.5 or less. Very unusual.
Home teams went down for the first time this season, although just barely
at 7-8. Home dogs continue to impress with another winning week, 3-2. They've
won every week so far and are sitting at 19-10, 65.5%
Oakland at Kansas Ctiy Line: Kansas City -8.5 Total: 40.5
Kansas City is one of the two best
stories this season in the NFL. I've got to go with Denver as the top story.
They've got a great season going on, sitting at 5-0. Oakland is one of the worse
teams in the NFL, bottom 25% for sure.
The thing about these two teams is
that they have a long history of close games and winning at each others home
field. The last time the Chiefs beat the Raiders in Kansas City was 2006. Over
the last 6 games the Raiders are 5-1 against the Chiefs.
I'm not saying look for a Raider
victory, but the line is set too high at 8.5. If it's the typical AFC WEST
slugfest, the Raiders should cover.
The home teams won again. They've won every week, going 44-29 ATS. 60.3% And you know how people say the home
dogs are the best bet in football? Guess what? They're right! Home dogs have won every week and are
sitting at 16-8 ATS. 66.7%
Unprecedented. This has to end, but who knows when? And the week it ends
comes, it could end with the home teams going 7-8-1.
New Orleans at Chicago Line: New Orleans -1 Total: 50
Right now the game comes down to not only who's got the better quarterback,
but which one has the hot hand right now. The answer to both questions is Drew
Brees. He looked unstoppable in last weeks game. The Saints are hitting their
stride. The Bears are a talented team, but they don't seem to have jelled yet.
The Saints are the better team right now and giving up just a point, they're
the play this weekend.